What’s next and what does it mean for the world?

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has set in motion a formal succession process that could have significant implications for the country’s political stability, sanctions outlook and already strained economy.

Khamenei was killed in a joint military strike by Israel and the United States, Iranian state media confirmed. At the time of his death, 86-year-old Khamenei was in his office at his residence, Iran’s Fars news agency said. on Telegram.

Khamenei took power after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, inheriting a revolutionary state despite the Iran-Iraq War.

Khamenei was not seen as an obvious successor. Karim Sadjadpour, Karim Sadjadpour, did not have the religious identification documents required by the constitution at the time. Policy Analyst At Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cited in His studies on Khamenei.

A few months before Khomeini’s death, the constitution was amended to state that the leader must only be an expert in Islamic jurisprudence with political and managerial capacity. A change that enabled the rise of Khamenei.

Over time, the Supreme Leader’s office consolidated authority over Iran’s major institutions. If the president is changed through elections, Khamenei maintained control Army, Judiciary, State Broadcasting and on major policy decisions (Article 110).

Khamenei The “Resistance Economy” won In order to promote self-sufficiency within Western sanctions, it was wary of alliances with the West and His safety-first approach led to a crackdown on critics who argued that it held back reforms.

His rule faced repeated tests. In 2009, there were massive protests and a crackdown on alleged electoral fraud. Protests for women’s rights began in 2022. A serious challenge arose in late December 2025, when economic grievances escalated into nationwide unrest, with some protesters openly calling for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

A similar sentiment was seen on social media platforms after his death, where Irani They were shown taking to the streets and celebratingAccording to the New York Times.

However, analysts warn that jubilation does not equate to transformation.

“The removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei does not amount to regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the regime,” the Council on Foreign Relations said. Recorded after his deathLimiting the possibility of immediate political or economic change.

Khamenei’s death marked only the second leadership transition since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. A moment described by CFR Historically significant but seriously uncertain in its impact.

While some Iranians have expressed hope that a change in leadership could ease repression and economic isolation, the Council on Foreign Relations said the likely succession results did not suggest meaningful political or economic liberalization immediately after the transition.

“Leadership change in Iran can take three primary paths – regime continuity, military takeover or regime collapse,” the CFR reported. However, the think tank warned that “none of these” envisages positive transformation in the near term or within a year of the transition.

In a consistent effect, essentially “Khameneism without Khamenei,” investors and households may still face uncertainty as the new leader must “learn on the job” while trying to shape economic policy with limited resources and under intense pressure.

A shift to strong military dominance does not necessarily mean economic reform: the CFR suggests that a security-led model can discuss stability and economic management, but will still struggle against a “deeply distorted economy” with “persistent inflation and a faltering currency”.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, echoed a similar stance: “If the next supreme leader is not more capable of negotiating with the US, Iran’s economy will soon become a parking lot.”

If the supreme leader is replaced by another hardliner who does not want to negotiate with the United States and who continues to attack the region, U.S. military operations will be punishable and “Iran will return to the Middle Ages,” he said.

Keith Fitzgerald, managing director of C-Change Partners, put it more clearly.

“Killing Khamenei is not ‘regime change’ in itself. Think of it like changing a light bulb: to change it, you must first remove the broken bulb that is there. But doing so does not change the bulb. It requires replacing it with a new one,” he wrote in a note.

In addition, the exiled Iranian opposition remains fragmented and lacks unified leadership, said Ali JS, a former strategic intelligence analyst at the NATO Joint Warfare Center.

Importing political figures from abroad, whether a restored monarchy or another alternative “has limited credibility on the ground and risks a repeat of previous experiments with parachute elites that went awry elsewhere,” she said.

Opposition to exile Iran is diverse but deeply divided. They include a monarchy aligned with the US-based son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi, who was exiled after the 1979 revolution; Republican and secular-democratic activists scattered across Europe and North America; Kurdish opposition groups operate along Iran’s western border; and the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), which maintains an organized political network abroad but has limited credibility in Iran.