How does Iran choose its Supreme Leader and who could be next?

The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following joint US-Israeli airstrikes has put Iran’s leadership in an urgent process of electing a new Supreme Leader.

According to the Constitution of IranThe Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body elected by the people every eight years. Candidates for the Legislative Assembly are first vetted by the Guardian Council, which strictly controls who can contest.

When a post becomes vacant, the Assembly convenes to elect a successor by deliberation. A simple majority is required for a decision.

in the meantime, Provisional three-member leadership council Assumes the duties of supreme leader until a replacement is formally appointed.

Local media reported on Sunday Provisional Council They include President Massoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-AJE, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who serves as a representative of the Guardian Council.

The Council’s authority is strictly transitionalThe Assembly of Experts has the sole constitutional right to choose Iran’s next Supreme Leader.

on PolymarketTrader Mohseni-Ejei is leading the price narrower at roughly 18%. Other prominent contenders include Arafi and Iranian cleric Hassan Khomeini.

The “Position Abolished” result is trading behind, indicating that while the market is still leaning toward an individual successor, there is meaningful speculation around a possible structural change in the office itself.

Here are some of the top contenders:

Mohseni-Ejei has become Chief Justice of Iran since July 2021Overseeing the country’s judiciary and overseeing legal policy in the Islamic Republic.

Prior to that, he served as Attorney-General from 2009 to 2014, First Deputy Chief Justice and Spokesperson from 2014 to 2021, and previously held national security roles including Minister of Intelligence from 2005 to 2009.

He is also a longtime member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a key advisory body to the Iranian leadership, and his career spans senior positions in both the judiciary and the security apparatus.

Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, could theoretically serve as a bridge between the revolutionary system and reformist elements, he said. Council on Foreign Relations.

The CFR suggested that elevating someone like him would help preserve the original structure of the Islamic Republic, reduce Iran’s international isolation and address popular discontent at home.

Arafi is A senior Iranian cleric and influential figures in the Islamic Republic’s religious and political hierarchy. He has risen through the clerical establishment, including the director of Iran’s seminaries, head of Friday prayers in Qom, and key appointments to both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, the body constitutionally tasked with electing the Supreme Leader.

Arafi’s roles in theological education and vetting of political candidates have made him central to Iran’s clerical power structure.

internal Article 111 of the Constitution of IranThe death or incapacity of the supreme leader immediately triggers the formation of a provisional leadership council to exercise his powers until a successor is chosen.

The constitution does not set a strict time limit for the Assembly of Experts to appoint a new leader, but it does state that the assembly must act within a “minimum period of time”.

Analysts cautioned, however, that the formal succession process could involve intense elite bargaining and widespread geopolitical uncertainty.

Amin Saikal, professor emeritus at the University of Western Australia, said Mohseni-Ejei could be seen as the front-runner, but the Assembly of Experts could choose another member, or even an outsider.

“There’s going to be a lot of horse-trading,” he said. “What emerges may be a compromise,” he told CNBC.

He added that hardline successors would continue Khamenei’s confrontational stance and security-first policies, while more moderates could make limited reforms aimed at easing domestic sanctions and improving foreign relations to ease sanctions pressure.

Separately, former US ambassador to Russia and Stanford University professor Michael McFaul noted that historically air campaigns rarely topple regimes, raising the question of how US strikes targeting military assets, rather than internal instruments of repression, would translate into the broader regime change Washington calls for.