How could US strikes on Iran affect global oil supplies?

Military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran pose serious risks to oil markets and thus to the global economy, although the extent of their impact on oil production and trade is not yet clear.

Trading markets are currently closed, so it won’t be easy to gauge the impact on oil prices until they open late Sunday. But crude oil prices have been creeping for weeks based largely on concerns about threats to oil supplies and trade if the United States attacks Iran.

Although Ongoing sanctionsIran remains an important oil exporter. As of December, it was able to export about 1.9 million barrels per day despite US efforts to prevent exports. According to the International Energy Agency.

Most of Iran’s exports are oil He goes to China It is done on what is called "shadow ships," Carriers that conceal their activities to evade sanctions or other restrictions. The United States has recently escalated the pace of implementing sanctions against it Shadow fleets Trying to limit their activities.

But China remains somewhat insulated from the disruption of Iranian oil imports, says Antoine Halff, senior analyst at Kyros, a climate and environmental analytics firm. "China has very large reserves, both strategic reserves and commercial reserves." He says.

This is why Half says: "If you take Iran out, you won’t starve the rest of the world."

The main reason oil markets are concerned about US strikes has to do with how Iran responds, says Raad Al-Qadiri, managing partner at 3TEN32 Associates, a political risk consultancy.

 "The issue will be kind of what happens in the long run and the potential knock-on effects," Al-Qadiri says.

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping route. About 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through it daily US Energy Information Administration, from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This represents about 20% of global oil demand. Al-Qadri says that if Iran closes the strait and disrupts the flow of this oil, the impact on global prices will be immediate and dramatic.

However, the world is currently Excess oilThis has helped prevent prices from rising too sharply in recent weeks, even as concerns grow about the risk of a crisis.

In light of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel last yearBoth sides avoided targeting oil production or export facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Oil prices remained Relatively stable. If the strait remained closed, especially for a long period of time, the story would be different.

Half says the worst-case scenario for oil markets revolves around Iran striking its neighbors.

 "The first concern for the oil market and the energy market is whether Iran will retaliate in any way against the producing countries in the Gulf. Against Saudi facilities, Kuwaiti facilities, Emirati facilities, or even Qatari facilities," Half says.

"There is a stronger possibility of this," He continues. "The impact of this will be much greater."

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