Delegates say that OPEC+ is considering a larger increase after the strike on Iran

The group was led by Saudi Arabia and Russia It is expected to resume Several delegates said earlier this week that production saw modest increases in April after a three-month supply freeze as part of an ongoing strategy to regain market share.

Three people said their primary goal was to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, in line with increases during the fourth quarter. Another said the key factor in Sunday’s decision would be whether the shocking US-Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic would lead to the closure of the important Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The delegates requested anonymity because the deliberations are private.

Saturday attacks and Tehran’s revenge The attack against US military bases in the region represents the culmination of a geopolitical crisis that has pushed crude oil prices higher this year despite widespread expectations of a surplus. Futures rose to a seven-month high of $73 a barrel in London on Friday, after rising 19% this year amid a combination of production disruptions, sanctions and Chinese stockpiles.

Saudi Arabia, along with some other producers, has accelerated the pace of oil exports in recent days, as America’s deployment of military assets in the Middle East inflames tensions in the region. Last year, Riyadh temporarily boosted supplies during a previous US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Read more: Saudi Arabia and Iran raise oil exports as tensions rise in the Middle East

President Donald Trump urged Iranians on Saturday to overthrow their government as the United States launches “major combat operations” against the Islamic Republic and Israel launches “preventive” air strikes on targets in the country. Tehran claimed responsibility for retaliatory attacks on US military bases in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait.

Check out our blog TOPLive: US and Israel launch attacks on Iran as Trump urges uprising

The bombing comes two days after delegations from Iran and the United States met in Switzerland for the third time Round of negotiations Regarding Tehran’s nuclear activities. While Iran appeared optimistic about the course of the talks, Trump said on Friday that he was not satisfied with how they developed.

The fragility of regional energy flows became immediately apparent again on Saturday, with the Houthis – a Yemen-based militia with ties to Tehran – vowing to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. sea Corridor.

To the east, traders were closely monitoring the situation in the area Strait of HormuzIt is a focal point in times of regional turmoil because a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil – and a significant portion of its gas – passes through the waterway every day.

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Saudi Arabia has the bulk of the world’s spare oil production capacity and is capable of amassing an additional 1.8 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. A representative said that the United Arab Emirates has a contingency plan to deploy at least one million barrels per day.

Among the sites targeted in Iran, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported an explosion on Kharg Island, where a major oil export terminal is located – although it did not provide details. Oil facilities were not targeted during the attacks on Iran in June, and Trump pledged to reduce fuel prices.

Under the guidance of Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have often adopted a cautious policy in the face of geopolitical events, choosing to see if they have a material impact before acting.

The kingdom has suffered the fallout from regional conflicts before, most notably during a 2019 attack on the Abqaiq processing facility — claimed by Iran’s Houthi allies — that briefly paralyzed its production.

OPEC+ did not collectively adjust course after last summer’s attacks on Iran, or when the United States arrested Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro at the beginning of this year.

However, oil markets have confounded expectations so far in 2026.

“The market has been priced into a glut that is starting to look mostly surreal,” said Jeff Corey, chief strategy officer for Energy Pathways at the company. Carlyle Group Inc. “There’s no room for error, which means there’s a lot of room for rallying.”

While global supplies are exceeding demand, a range of disruptions from North America to Kazakhstan and Russia have eased the surplus. Much of the surplus is either made up of sanctioned barrels coming from Russia or Iran – which are not available to the public market – or is poached by China for strategic reserves.

Opening the taps a little more could fit into OPEC+’s long-term goals. For nearly a year, the Saudis and other key members have been engaged in an apparent campaign to regain market share that has been ceded in recent years to rivals such as US shale drillers. They have revived production halted since 2023 despite warnings that global markets have been comfortably supplied.