Be wary of popular decline

We’re in the middle of the NFL’s bye weeks, injuries are piling up, and your players are being picked Fantasy football The list can be difficult if you are not looking in the right place.

Most people simply look at what happened last week and pick out the players who scored the most points, regardless of the context. They are point chasers, making up their minds about what was. Smart managers have a deeper knowledge of the game, understand the matches and make their decisions based on what will happen. It can be a thin line, but if you stay on the right side, you’ll come out on top.

If Chargers running back Kimani Vidal were available in your league, he would almost certainly be the most popular waiver claim. He surprised everyone by outpacing teammate Hassan Haskins and paced the Dolphins for 124 yards on 18 carries. He also added three catches for 14 yards and a touchdown, and the numbers left everyone drooling over the possibilities. But can he repeat it? It seems unlikely.

Not only is Miami’s defense the worst in the NFL, but the Chargers’ upcoming schedule includes games against the Colts, Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars — all of whom are doing a good job of stifling the run. They’re not going to give up the way the Dolphins did, and with the Chargers’ offensive line woes — they’re now missing three key players — winning the battle in the trenches will be very difficult. Not to mention, we should be seeing Omarion Hampton back in a few weeks anyway, so Vidal is already working on borrowed time.

If you’re looking to make a big splash on waivers this week, now is a good time to add Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. He was a hot commodity after a week, but was dropped in many leagues, as David Njoku was seeing more snaps and more goals.

Unfortunately, Njoku left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, and recent reports suggest he may miss some games. These matchups come against the Dolphins, Patriots, Jets and Ravens — all four of which rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. The way Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel is leaning toward his tight end, Fannin is set for a significant increase in both snaps and targets. This in turn leads to much better fantasy production.

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In the fantasy community, we refer to players as good chalk and bad chalk. Good chalk means the player is very popular and for good reason. You want to play with him. Bad chalk means the player is popular but should not be relied upon for quality or consistent production. Regarding Vidal and Vanin, you have to know which one is which. Don’t be a score chaser and fall into the trap of bad chalk.

Howard Bender is Head of Content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy And watch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM’s fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com For all your fantasy football news and tips.